Fossil fuels are currently the primary source of the cheap
energy that powers our modern Industrial Civilization. If we are
running out of crude oil and natural gas, as some of the best
scientists and engineers in the energy field are telling us,  we have big problems.

Think back for a moment to the year 1801, only two hundred years
ago, that was a time when there was no gasoline, no refined oil, no
natural gas, and no electrical power derived from oil and gas. As a
thought experiment, try to  imagine what life was like at the beginning
of the 19th century. If you were transported back two hundred years,
how would the lack of petroleum affect your lifestyle?

While we might accurately imagine the loss of cheap energy
from petroleum, most of us would overlook the 70,000 products that are
manufactured using petroleum as a raw feedstock. This includes
plastics, acrylics, cosmetics, paints, varnishes, asphalts,
fertilizers, medications, etc., etc., etc..

Now, in addition to our loss of cheap energy and the 70,000
products that you and I have come to depend on, imagine our sharing
that impoverished Earth with six billion other humans?

Industrial civilization, as we know it, cannot exist without petroleum. We humans are facing an extinction level crisis. Any careful examination of the writings and papers of the world’s leading energy scientists will convince the reader of the validity of the fossil fuel energy crisis.

This problem is real and it is even worse than it appears. Writing in 1996, Richard Duncan, Ph.D. explained this crisis in what he called the Olduvai Theory:

“In 1989, I concluded that the life-expectancy of
Industrial Civilization is horridly short. This hypothesis was defined
in terms of a measurable index, world energy-use per person, and named
the “transient-pulse theory of Industrial Civilization.” I sketched its
maximum point at 1990, followed by a persistent decline. Ö By 1996,
however, I had successfully tested the Olduvai theory against numerous
sets of data. The following facts emerge.

• The broad sweep of human history can be divided into three phases.
• The first, or pre-industrial phase was a very long period of
  equilibrium when simple tools and weak machines limited economic
  growth.
• The second, or industrial phase was a very short period of
  non-equilibrium that ignited with explosive force when powerful new
  machines temporarily lifted all limits to growth.
• The third, or de-industrial phase lies immediately ahead
  during which time the industrial economies will decline toward a new
  period of equilibrium, limited by the exhaustion of nonrenewable
  resources and continuing deterioration of the natural environment.

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BBC Environmental Science — It seems unthinkable, but for the first time in human history, ice is on course to disappear entirely from the North Pole this year.

The disappearance of the Arctic sea ice, making it possible to reach the Pole sailing in a boat through open water, would be one of the most dramatic – and worrying – examples of the impact of global warming on the planet. Scientists say the ice at 90 degrees north may well have melted away by the summer.

“From the viewpoint of science, the North Pole is just another point on the globe, but symbolically it is hugely important. There is supposed to be ice at the North Pole, not open water,” said Mark Serreze of the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado. …

The polar regions are experiencing the most dramatic increase in average temperatures due to global warming and scientists fear that as more sea ice is lost, the darker, open ocean will absorb more heat and raise local temperatures even further. Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University, who was one of the first civilian scientists to sail underneath the Arctic sea ice in a Royal Navy submarine,said that the conditions are ripe for an unprecedented melting of the ice at the North Pole.

“Last year we saw huge areas of the ocean open up, which has never been experienced before. People are expecting this to continue this year and it is likely to extend over the North Pole. It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said. (06/26/08)
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