The Century of the Environment
Thursday, January 1st, 2009
E. O. Wilson writing in 2002: The
20th century was a time of exponential scientific and technical
advance, the freeing of the arts by an exuberant modernism, and the
spread of democracy and human rights throughout the world. It was also
a dark and savage age of world wars, genocide, and totalitarian
ideologies that came dangerously close to global domination. While
preoccupied with all this tumult, humanity managed collaterally to
decimate the natural environment and draw down the nonrenewable
resources of the planet with cheerful abandon. We thereby accelerated
the erasure of entire ecosystems and the extinction of thousands of
million-year-old species. If Earth’s ability to support our growth is
finite–and it is–we were mostly too busy to notice.
As a new
century begins, we have begun to awaken from this delirium. Now,
increasingly postideological in temper, we may be ready to settle down
before we wreck the planet. It is time to sort out Earth and calculate
what it will take to provide a satisfying and sustainable life for
everyone into the indefinite future. The question of the century is:
How best can we shift to a culture of permanence, both for ourselves
and for the biosphere that sustains us?
The bottom line is
different from that generally assumed by our leading economists and
public philosophers. They have mostly ignored the numbers that count.
Consider that with the global population past six billion and on its
way to eight billion or more by midcentury, per capita freshwater and
arable land are descending to levels resource experts agree are risky.
The ecological footprint–the average amount of productive land and
shallow sea appropriated by each person in bits and pieces from around
the world for food, water, housing, energy, transportation, commerce,
and waste absorption–is about one hectare (2.5 acres) in developing
nations but about 9.6 hectares (24 acres) in the U.S. The footprint for
the total human population is 2.1 hectares (5.2 acres). For every
person in the world to reach present U.S. levels of consumption with
existing technology would require four more planet Earths. The five
billion people of the developing countries may never wish to attain
this level of profligacy. But in trying to achieve at least a decent
standard of living, they have joined the industrial world in erasing
the last of the natural environments. At the same time, Homo sapiens
has become a geophysical force, the first species in the history of the
planet to attain that dubious distinction. We have driven atmospheric
carbon dioxide to the highest levels in at least 200,000 years,
unbalanced the nitrogen cycle, and contributed to a global warming that
will ultimately be bad news everywhere.
In short, we have
entered the Century of the Environment, in which the immediate future
is usefully conceived as a bottleneck. Science and technology, combined
with a lack of self-understanding and a Paleolithic obstinacy, brought
us to where we are today. Now science and technology, combined with
foresight and moral courage, must see us through the bottleneck and out. (01/01/09)
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