A book review of Martin Rees’ Our Final Century by Steven B Kurtz: The book examines highlights and trends of human history from anthropological, environmental, and sci-tech perspectives.

Rees
discusses the 20th century arms race and the dilemma of mutually
assured destruction via nuclear weapons. Indeed, he thinks we are lucky
to have survived the past 50 years. He surveys the environmental
degradation and resource depletion that have accelerated since the
industrial age began, and appreciates the ‘green’ or full-cost
accounting that some economists have suggested which counts more than
monetary costs and profit.

Rees questions the value of the views
of the future by many known ‘experts’: “Scientists are often blind to
the ramifications of their own discoveries.” (p. 13). He gives examples
including the opinion of both computer designer Von Neumann and IBM
founder T.J. Watson that only a few computers would be needed in the
US. Rees generally agrees with Ray Kurzweil (The Age of Spiritual
Machines), Gordon Moore (Moore’s Law), Hans Moravec (robotics), and
John Sulston (Human Genome Project) that the speed of technological
change will continue increasing. But he perceives far more risk from
the likely progressions than do the others. And he integrates physical
limits, which most do not, noting “some limits are set by energy and
resources.” (p.20). Rather than viewing science as a requisite sum of
certainties, Rees agrees with Isaac Asimov, whom he quotes: “No matter
how much we learn, whatever is left, however small it may seem, is just
as infinitely complex as the whole was to start with.” (p. 142).

When
future probabilities are considered, best judgements usually depend
upon a consensus of best current evidence. Religious-like fervor in
adherance to particular theories is irrational behaviour; yet that
seems to be a dominant human trait. …

It seems to me that most humans have difficulty
thinking and behaving with long term horizons in mind. We may focus on,
for example, our next bonus, paycheck, job, meal, sexual encounter, or
crime. The tougher our personal circumstance is, the shorter term is
our required focus. Survival is number one. Recall the native American
notion of Seven Generations. A sustainable human future requires that
sort of thinking in my opinion, and I think Rees fully agrees.

All
in all, Rees has done a magnificent job of framing the risks of the
21st century. The book is quite accessible, and I would like to see it
required reading for all capable of high school level material. The
fewer of us flying blind into the future the better. (01/26/09)
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